Original-Research: Health Italia S.p.A. (von GBC AG): BUY

    ^

Original-Research: Health Italia S.p.A. - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Health Italia S.p.A.

Unternehmen: Health Italia S.p.A.
ISIN: IT0005221004

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Note)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 4.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Marcel Schaffer

Good first half-year. The focus on the core business model is paying off.
Forecast confirmed.
 
In the first half of 2023, revenues amounted to EUR17.81 million, signaling a
slight 7.5% decline compared to the same period in the previous year of
EUR19.25 million. This decline is primarily associated with the impact of the
'discontinued operations' of Be Health S.p.A. and Health Property S.p.A.,
which represent the two segments Nutraceutical and Real Estate.
 
The core segment of promotion and services ('Servizi Health Care')
experienced a robust growth of 6.9%, reaching EUR11.16 million (PY: EUR10.44
million). Meanwhile, the customer support segment ('Support Health Care')
exhibited substantial growth, increasing by 10.0% to EUR1.93 million (PY:
EUR1.75 million). This shows that the introduction of a multi-channel
distribution model, coupled with continuous investments in technological
advancements, notably within the healthcare and telemedicine sector, has
been instrumental in driving the noteworthy results achieved over the
initial six months of the year. However, the health benefits segment
('Servizi Sanitari') saw a notable decline of 23.3%, amounting to EUR4.72
million (PY: EUR6.15 million). The drop in revenues for this segment can be
largely attributed to accounting periods, and we anticipate that growth
will stabilize and normalize over the course of the entire year.
 
In terms of cost management, the company has shown significant improvements
in various key categories. Costs for services experienced a notable
decrease, moving from EUR-13.07 million euros to EUR-12.05 million, which
amounts to roughly 7.81% in cost savings. Staff costs also saw a
significant reduction of approximately 13.47%, declining from EUR-2.64
million to EUR-2.29 million. This cost-saving was attributed mainly to
outsourcing of IT services.
 
The adjusted EBITDA, standing at EUR3.27 million, experienced a slight
increase of 2.7% compared to the gross operating margin in the first half
of the preceding year (EUR3.18 million). The adjusted EBITDA margin now
stands at 18.4% of net revenues, which signifies a growth of approximately
2 percentage points when compared to the first half of 2022 (16.5%). This
commendable result is an outcome of increased margins within the core
business and the effective cost-saving measures implemented by the Group.
The adjustment to EBITDA is prompted by the fact that these effects do not
stem from regular business operations and are issues expected to be
mitigated in the medium term. The one-time impact is primarily associated
with the acquisition of real estate in connection with an NPL deal.
 
The unadjusted EBITDA, encompassing various miscellaneous costs and charges
('Altri costi e oneri diversi') and other income ("Altri Ricavi e Proventi
diversi"), contracted by 37.8%, reaching EUR2.87 million compared to the
prior year's EUR4.61 million. This reduction led to a decrease in the EBITDA
margin, which now stands at 16.1% as opposed to the previous year's 24.0%.
This variance is primarily attributed to an extraordinary gain stemming
from a real estate transaction in 2022.
 
The net result for the period indicates a profit of EUR1.52 million, in
contrast to the same period in 2022 when a profit of EUR2.29 million was
recorded.
 
 
In the first half of 2023, the Group continued its successful journey,
achieving positive results, notably in profitability. Their commitment to a
multi-channel distribution model, ongoing technological innovation,
streamlined core activities, and cost control remained unwavering.
Regarding the nutraceutical segment, Health Italia has chosen to
discontinue its direct management of this segment in order to refocus on
its core businesses, maintaining an indirect involvement through equity
participation. As part of this decision, Be Health has approved a capital
increase, resulting in a dilution of Health Italia's ownership to less than
50%. Furthermore, Health Italia is proactively investing in the enhancement
of their digital platforms, paving the way for significant improvements in
service quality and operational efficiency. These in-house platforms are
poised to streamline workflows, ultimately bolstering operational
effectiveness.
 
Moreover, Health Italia is pursuing an expansion of its sales and
distribution model. Leveraging its existing sales channels, including
banking and external networks, the company is now keen to broaden its
market reach by introducing an online sales channel. This multi-pronged
approach will diversify their customer base, making their services
accessible to a broader clientele.
 
This strategic realignment, guided by Health Italia's core competencies and
market demands, positions the company for substantial growth in the years
ahead. It underscores their adaptability and unwavering commitment to
leading the healthcare sector by evolving to meet the dynamic needs of
their clients.
 
Health Italia S.p.A.'s guidance for 2023-2026 centers on reinforcing its
financial structure and optimizing key performance indicators. This
guidance aligns with the group's ESG principles and emphasizes
reinvestment, cost-saving, and sustainability. By 2026, Health Italia aims
to achieve revenues ranging from EUR50.0 to EUR52.0 million, an EBITDA within
the EUR12.0 to EUR14.0 million range, and a positive net financial position.
 
The half-year results affirm that our forecast is on track, and we reaffirm
our confidence in it. Due to the company's strategic shift towards core
business operations, leading to exits from the nutraceutical and real
estate sectors, we anticipate a slight decline in revenue for 2023 at EUR38.2
million. As the company refocuses solely on its core business in the
subsequent year, we anticipate a growth of 8.6%, resulting in estimated
revenues of EUR41.58 million in the year 2024. Our projections are consistent
with the company's guidance, anticipating a fairly stable growth
trajectory. In our discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we forecast revenues
reaching EUR50.31 million and an EBITDA of EUR13.12 million by 2026.
 
As the company renews its focus on its core business, we anticipate a
consistent upswing in profit margins. Notably, the promotional and service
segment, already recognized for its high margins, has demonstrated even
stronger profitability in the past. We believe that the revised strategy
will empower the management to progressively regain and potentially surpass
their previous levels of success. For 2023, we foresee an EBITDA of EUR6.58
million, reflecting an EBITDA margin of 17.2%. Furthermore, we predict a
steady rise in EBITDA and margin in the ensuing years. Our projections
indicate an EBITDA of EUR7.77 million and an EBITDA margin of 18.7% for 2024.
 
The financial charges are expected to decrease due to the repayment of the
convertible bond. We also project a gradual decrease in the company's
financial obligations over the years. Consequently, we anticipate that the
net result will follow a trajectory similar to EBITDA, albeit with more
pronounced margin improvements. After achieving a net result of EUR3.7
million in 2022, we expect figures of EUR3.07 million in 2023 and EUR4.04
million in 2024.
 
We maintain our confidence in the forecast and valuation, consequently
reiterating our target price of EUR4.00 and a Buy rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28163.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
+++++++++++++++
Date and time of completion of the research report: 09.11.2023 (10:00)
Date and time of the first disclosure of the research report: 09.11.2023 (12:00)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

°