Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG

26.03.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

     Company Name:                Scandinavian Astor Group AB
     ISIN:                        SE0019175274

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        26.03.2025
     Target price:                SEK 30.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Henry Wendisch

Bullish new mid-term targets & capital increase for further M&A

Yesterday, Astor announced bullish new mid-term targets and resolved a SEK
150m capital increase to fund further acquisitions. In detail:

Bullish new mid-term targets: As previously flagged, we regarded the old
mid-term targets (> SEK 400m sales and > 15% EBITDA margin by FY'26e) as
conservative, given the strong recent performance. Now, Astor targets SEK
2.5bn in sales (incl. M&A) and more than 15% EBITDA margin, which is well
above our current estimate (eNuW: SEK 586m sales in FY'28e with a 24% EBITDA
margin) as we do not model any M&A. Nevertheless, this would imply sales to
10x and EBITDA to at least 20x over the next 4 years, highlighting the
enormous growth planned.

Well filled M&A pipeline: Astor has several targets in an advanced stage of
discussion whose combined turnover exceeds SEK 500m with an implied EBITDA
margin of at least 12%. Given the last 6 acquisitions over the last 15
months (combined turnover of SEK 166m with a 17% EBITDA margin, see p. 2 for
details), Astor seems to increase the M&A pace significantly. However, until
first deals are signed and thus purchase price multiples become visible, we
cannot assess the pipeline's value accretion potential. Nevertheless, we
expect Astor to not exceed 8-10x EV/EBITDA, given its recent M&A history
(6.3x EV/
EBITDA).

Capital increase to fund acquisitions. In order to finance the potential
acquisitions, Astor resolved a SEK 150m capital increase, exceeding the
original target of SEK 125m, via an accelerated bookbuilding without
subscription rights yesterday after market close (6.5m new shares placed at
SEK 24 per share). Also, a share of the proceeds is intended to finance
growth CAPEX in the form of production capacity. Consequently, Astor should
now have a cash position of c. SEK 179m by Q1'25e (vs. SEK 50m at Y/E'24),
giving the company a well-filled M&A war chest, in our view. (see p. 2 for
details)

In sum, Astor's engines (M&A and organic performance) are running at full
speed. Further value-accretive M&A (as evidenced in the last 15 months) soon
after the capital increase, should overcompensate the remaining
shareholder's dilution, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY
recommendation with an unchanged PT of SEK 30.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32062.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2106412 26.03.2025 CET/CEST

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