Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG

07.04.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA

     Company Name:                Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
     ISIN:                        DE0005493092

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        07.04.2025
     Target price:                EUR 5.20
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

Prize money distribution for CWC released; chg.

It was about time, but 10 weeks before the start of the inaugural 32-team
Club World Cup in the US, FIFA finally released details on the prize money
distribution. In detail:

As previously communicated, total prize money amounts to $ 1bn, of which $
525m is allocated to starting fees and $ 475m to the performance pillar. The
winner of the tournament could receive up to $ 126m. Yet, we expect BVB's
total prize money rather at $ 51m. Here is a detailed explanation of our
estimate:

Starting fee: FIFA announced that, European clubs are set to receive a
starting fee in the range $ 12.8-38.2m. Given the strength of the
participating clubs, we would position BVB in the middle, hence taking the
average $ 25.5m as our estimte for BVB's starting fee.

Performance pillar: For every game won in the group stage, teams receive $
2m, while every draw generates $ 1m. We conservatively expect BVB to win two
games and achieve one draw, resulting in $ 5m. Moreover, this would almost
certainly make BVB the winner of their group, resulting in another $ 7.5m
for reaching the round of 16. Here, BVB would face the 2nd placed team of
group E, which is likely to be River Plate from Argentina (based on squad
value). BVB should be the clear favourite in this duel, which is why we
expect them to reach the quarterfinals, generating another $ 13.1m. Here,
the team would likely face Real Madrid, a team that should be too much of a
hurdle for BVB. However, it is not yet clear how seriously teams will take
the tournament. Especially for Real Madrid, where coach Ancelotti once even
claimed they would refuse to take part. Hence, it remains to be seen if
Ancelotti brings his first squad in the possible quarterfinal matchup. A
potential semifinal would generate additional $ 21m prize money. Mind you,
as BVB's round of 16 match would be on July 1, we attribute the prize money
for the knock-out
stage entirely into FY25/26e.

This is positive new for the club, as the chances for FY25/26e UCL
qualification are declining. Despite a
second win in a row in Freiburg, BVB is still trailing the top-4 by 5
points, with only six games to go. The
prize money for the CWC would hereby partly make up for failing the UCL
qualification. This should bode
well for BVB in order to put together a strong squad in the summer, which
will be able to requalify for the
2026/27 UCL season.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.20 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32186.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2112232 07.04.2025 CET/CEST

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